Why Has al-Qaeda Succeeded In North Africa And Failed In Arabian Peninsula?

That’s the question posed by a member of the Shumukh forum.  Below are a range of answers:

Abu Hajir (failure in Saudi):

• Clerics of beggary [i.e. they have their hand out for state money]
• The proximity of a theater like Iraq
• No suitable environment to move about or hide from the state
• The above only applies to Saudi Arabia; the brothers in Yemen are doing well

Abu Hajir (success in N. Africa):

• The rulers are manifestly not Muslims in the eyes of ordinary Muslims
• Rulers who impoverish their countries for the sake of warlords and the French
• Total war on the religion of God
• The experience of the militant groups in Algeria
• The desert that connects the Islamic countries of N. Africa with the Horn of Africa.  It is unprotected.

safyahh (success in N. Africa):

• The long experience of the Salvation Front fighting the French
• Difficult terrain
• Diffusion of weapons
• Islamists have greater legitimacy because power was snatched from them by the military

Zanki2010 (failure in Saudi):

• Historical background of the Saudi state
• Saudi successfully duped all of the clerics in the ’60s and ’70s.
• The existence of sects in Saudi Arabia, particularly the Shia, that the Saudi state uses to scare the Sunnis, particularly Sunni clerics
• Major differences between traditional Salafi clerics and the Sahwa Salafi clerics who entered Saudi from other countries
• The jihads in Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Chechnya drained the enthusiasm of the youth.
• The Saudi state fought the clerics with prison, buying them off, and heavy surveillance.  It also duped them by implementing some of the more showy Islamic laws.
• The topography of Saudi Arabia makes guerrilla wars or wars of attrition difficult.
• Logistical and intelligence support from America and the Gulf States against the jihad
• Breaking Saudi society into factions by cultivating tribalism and buying the loyalty of tribal chiefs
• Passing laws that limit an individual’s activities