http://gudmundson.blogspot.com/2010/04/nytt-terrorhot-mot-sverige-fristen-gar.html

He seems to have a special interest in Sweden.

I believe that “Abu Sulayman al-Nasir”, yes is “Nasser al Din Allah Abu Suleiman”

I saw this:
http://www.hanein.info/vb/showthread.php?t=192830&page=1

http://www.muslm.net/vb/showthread.php?p=2720144

http://muslm.net/vb/showthread.php?t=411579

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1ELnf9oIyo

Many indications no?

One small note: The ISI official’s name, I think, is Nasir li’Din Allah, a name that appears not infrequently in Islamic history (one of the ‘Abbasid caliphs took this name).

About al-Nasir, I note is that he has been a Shmukh member for a reasonably long time, and that in other postings he self-identifies with aQ-Iraq. Neither point supports or discounts what he claims to know about Taimour. A video of Taimour making a last statement would be conclusive. An official statement from some bona fide aQ outfit would suffice. At the moment he still looks to me like Faisal Shahzad/Times Square (but it is very early in the investigation – I’m not wedded to that position).

On the other hand, studies of killing behavior indicate that legitimacy is a big issue. So someone may very well have convinced Taimour that he was authorized to take this action on behalf of their organization.

Speaking of which, can we say with certainty that “Abu Sulayman al-Nasir” on the forum is *not* the aQI leader identified as “Nasser al Din Allah Abu Suleiman”? I find it hard to ignore the similarity in the names – and if they are different, is the guy on the forum trying to create the impression that he is the aQI leader when he is not? If that was the case, I would have expected the forum to discipline him by now.

I can probably rule in, or rule out, Gudmundson’s hypothesis, but it will take a little time. In general there is no doubt but that a certain number of innocent civilians, secret agents, and academic researchers get into the pool of collected IPs. I know for fact that the US IPs include Evan Kohlmann, SITE, and MEMRI, and the Israeli IPs include ICT, Terrogence, and a few others of that type.

In response to Garbi, I understand your point, but will note that from experience over 9 years jihadis are a little undisciplined when it comes to tradecraft, and the various techniques and technologies they use are not 100% reliable. Overall proxy server use is very low.

It would help if researchers and agents would all use Tor all the time, but they don’t for the same reason jihadis don’t – it slows things down, and the technologies are not entirely user-friendly.

Returning to the back-of-the-envelope calculation – the proportion of jihadis in the resident Muslim population can vary wildly, an example being France vs. Belgium, where the former has a much larger Muslim population, but Belgium has a higher concentration of jihadis (together with adjoining areas of Netherlands and Germany).

As far as the WebTraffic of Spain 2% Shumukh, the real number could far below be to that number. In Spain there are three units of intelligence dedicated to the revision jihadista speech, in Sweden is most powerful of Europe.
The anonymous jihadistas use “IP, Tor or others”, are not so idiot.

I guess I shouldn’t, of course, but then nobody in the Swedish press would believe my statements about the jihadi discourse. My colleagues are in a state of denial, mostly, regarding these questions, so I have to present hard evidence…

Anyhow, with all respect to Aarons excellent work, the numbers from Sweden are exaggerated, I guess.