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chronicling the global jihad

Shabaab Propaganda Indicates Growing Power, Anxiety

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The Shabaab Movement has greatly accelerated its Arabic propaganda efforts in the last two weeks, keeping pace with its growing power in Somalia (compare it with their meager attempts just three months ago).  In the two week period there have been at least four major publications (video and audio). The acceleration might be attributed to more capable personnel or perhaps the organization has decided it needs to reach out more to the Arab world.  If the Taliban experience is any precedent, better propaganda = better insurgency.

But there’s also something else that is driving the recent acceleration: anxiety about losing “the fruits of jihad.”  This harvest metaphor is often invoked by Jihadis as part of cautionary tales of past militant groups who excelled at fighting but failed to consolidate their gains once the fighting ended.  The Shabaab employ it explicitly in the first publication below and implicitly in the second:

  • “So That the Way of the Criminals Is Made Clear” criticizes Sharif Ahmad, a former leader in the Islamic Courts Union that the U.S. and Ethiopia overthrew, and his Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia for their moderate Islamism and their willingness to cut deals with the enemy (Ethiopia, U.S.).
  • “No Peace Without Islam” charges Ahmad with turning the ARS into an Iraqi-style Awakening Council at the behest of his American sponsors.

Both pieces indicate that the Shabaab views the ARS as its primary rival once Ethiopia withdraws and that it’s not yet confident of defeating it.

Document (Arabic): 12-29-08-faloja-shabaab-statement-la-salam-bi-la-islam

Document (Arabic): 12-25-08-faloja-shabaab-statement-on-somali-criminals

When Will Somalia’s Shabaab Movement Declare An Islamic State?

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That’s the question asked by a member of the Faloja forum.  Here are some of the answers:

 

  • Al-Yamami: The Shabaab will soon declare its allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI); that’s why ISI’s head, `Umar al-Baghdadi, mentioned the movement recently.
  • Muhibb al-Muqrin: It will be become an emirate and remain so until the ISI returns to full strength after the occupiers leave Iraq at the end of the coming month.  It will then give its allegiance to the ISI.
  •  Buya`tu Allah: It is not in the Shabaab’s best interest to declare a state or to join al-Qaeda right now because it doesn’t want to face more enemies.
  • Al-Mu`tazz bi-Din Allah: It should declare a state after the Ethiopians withdraw from Somalia.
  • Qannas al-Dawla al-Islamiyya: It should declare an emirate soon.
  • Khayr Jubnd Allah: The Shabaab will declare a state after the occupiers have been driven from all of the important cities.
  • Abu Bakr al-Muhajir: I think that this business of declaring separate states and emirates will end and a single emirate or caliphate will be declared for the whole world.

 

As can be seen from above, the declaration of the “Islamic State of Iraq” has caused some confusion.  Does the “State” (dawla) part of the name mean that it is the nucleus of a future superstate, like previous Islamic superstates or empires (e.g. Dawla `Abbasiyya)?  If so, then other Jihadis groups should forgo setting up their own states and declare their allegiance to Baghdadi and the ISI.  Or does the the “Iraq” part of the name mean that the ISI is only a national entity, which is a little bothersome for Islamists since they reject nationalism? 

Document (Arabic): 11-15-08-faloja-when-will-somalia-declare-islamic-state