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Shabaab Propaganda Indicates Growing Power, Anxiety

The Shabaab Movement has greatly accelerated its Arabic propaganda efforts in the last two weeks, keeping pace with its growing power in Somalia (compare it with their meager attempts just three months ago).  In the two week period there have been at least four major publications (video and audio). The acceleration might be attributed to more capable personnel or perhaps the organization has decided it needs to reach out more to the Arab world.  If the Taliban experience is any precedent, better propaganda = better insurgency. But there’s also something else that is driving the recent acceleration: anxiety about losing “the fruits of jihad.”  This harvest metaphor is often invoked by Jihadis as part of cautionary tales of past militant groups who excelled at fighting but failed to consolidate their gains once the fighting ended.  The Shabaab employ it explicitly in the first publication below and implicitly in the second:

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When Will Somalia’s Shabaab Movement Declare An Islamic State?

That’s the question asked by a member of the Faloja forum.  Here are some of the answers:   Al-Yamami: The Shabaab will soon declare its allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI); that’s why ISI’s head, `Umar al-Baghdadi, mentioned the movement recently. Muhibb al-Muqrin: It will be become an emirate and remain so until the ISI returns to full strength after the occupiers leave Iraq at the end of the coming month.  It will then give its allegiance to the ISI.  Buya`tu Allah: It is not in the Shabaab’s best interest to declare a state or to join al-Qaeda right now because it doesn’t want to face more enemies. Al-Mu`tazz bi-Din Allah: It should declare a state after the Ethiopians withdraw from Somalia. Qannas al-Dawla al-Islamiyya: It should declare an emirate soon. Khayr Jubnd Allah: The Shabaab will declare a state after the occupiers have been driven from all

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