ji·had·ica

Islamic Warfighting Doctrine and Jihadi Behavior

There is a well-worn rut of thinking which holds that Islamic doctrines of warfare determine Jihadis’ violent behavior. The doctrine functions like software on a computer: if you can identify the doctrines/software, you can predict behavior. Raymond Ibrahim has posted a version of this argument at the MESH blog. Ibrahim is right to say that Jihadis of the Salafi stripe take the medieval Islamic teachings on warfare seriously (sometimes to their detriment, as Brynjar Lia has argued in a recent article).  But he is wrong to argue that studying these doctrines helps us understand, much less anticipate, the actions of Jihadis. I say this for five reasons: 1. The classical tradition Jihadis draw on is very contradictory. (I see that Bernard Haykel has already made this point in a comment on Ibrahim’s post.)  Which of the contradictory rulings is operative? 2. Cost-benefit analysis is an integral part of medieval Islamic

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Will McCants May 31, 2008

Insider Analysis of Nuke Tape

Akram Hijazi, a Jordanian professor who’s a big favorite on the Jihadi forums, blogged about the nuke tape that was posted on May 25 on the Ekhlass forum with the title: “The Prayer, The Prayer (Answered)–Allah Akbar America Has Been Destroyed–By a Fatal Jihadi Nuclear Strike.” The video, which Evan Kohlmann dismissed as poorly-made amateur propaganda, was posted by Ekhlaas member p2l0a0g8u9e and contains a description of Islam’s position on the use of various kinds of WMD. Hijazi notes that thousands of people viewed the post and hundreds commented on it, asking for the source. He also points out that this is p2l0a0g8u9e’s only posting, which means he wants to conceal his identity from the other forum participants. Some of the Ekhlaas commentators figured out that the name of the poster, p2l0a0g8u9e, is a rudimentary code for plague2008-9. Hijazi observes that this date corresponds to September 2008, also the time

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Will McCants May 30, 2008

AQ on the Ropes

The meme going around the past few weeks is that al-Qaeda is on the ropes. One of the first places I saw it in the mainstream press was an LA Times story from April, the main themes of which have been echoed recently in the Bergen/Cruickshank and Wright pieces. The main evidence offered is that several hard-line religious scholars that used to support AQ have now renounced the organization. Awda (Saudi cleric), Hamid al-Ali (Kuwaiti cleric), Sayyid Imam (former head of Egyptian al-Jihad), and the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia are the most commonly cited personalities. Michael Scheuer dissents (of course!), arguing that these scholars have either been co-opted, have an ax to grind, or are has-beens, so their criticism won’t matter to the Jihadis. In fact, Scheuer argues that the Jihadis are on the march: these arguments are occurring in the context of the jihadis expanding in North Africa,

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Will McCants May 29, 2008

No Nuke Chatter?

Unbeknownst to me, ABC ran a story yesterday saying that al-Qaeda will release a new tape about WMD attacks on the West. A little later in the evening, Evan Kohlmann wrote at the Counterterrorism Blog that ABC and the FBI had been duped by fringe reporting about a silly AQ fan video posted online that showed scenes of nuclear annihilation. He rightly observes that such a video is not an AQ product. But he goes beyond that to say the following: For the record: there is no indication whatsoever that Al-Qaida’s As-Sahab Media Foundation is preparing to release anything in the next 24 hours. There has been no notification posted on the usual channels, there are no glitzy advertisements, and there is no credible electronic chatter, period. Rather, the intel community appears to have (once again) fallen victim to poorly researched open source news reporting. If you read Jihadica yesterday,

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Will McCants May 28, 2008

Going Nuclear

I feel like I missed something over the Memorial Day weekend. The forums are buzzing today with talk about an impending AQ nuclear attack on the U.S.; I counted nine separate posts on Ekhlaas alone. There is usually some trigger–say, a recent Bin Laden statement–that prompts this clustering of topics, but I haven’t been able to find it. Just because there is chatter online doesn’t mean there’s anything to it. Most of the people who post to these forums don’t know much more about AQ operational planning than I do.  My current hypothesis is that the longer AQ goes without a major attack on the U.S. homeland or on Israel, the more expectations increase. Hence this nuclear talk or the recent speculation on AQ ops in the Palestinian territories. But why the sudden chatter about nukes? I did notice that the one Ekhlaas poster uploaded an article on Frontpagemagazine.com called

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Will McCants May 27, 2008

Channeling Sageman

Ekhlaas member Abu Hamza 2005, whom we’ve already met, has written a short essay called, “Bin Laden and the Globalization of Jihad.” In it, he argues that Bin Laden and al-Qaeda have transformed Jihadi-Salafism from an ideology in service of national or regional goals into a global ideology. Before 9/11, AQ was an organization that carried out operations. Through its actions and the response of the U.S. and its allies, Muslims came to more fully identify with the suffering of foreign Muslims. Now its primary role is to motivate the Muslim community to become part of the global conflict. In its role of advocate and exemplar rather than organizer, AQ has done away with structural organizations and is instead marketing a methodology (manhaj). On account of its success and notoriety, cells have formed that identify with its methodology but do not necessarily join its organization. Complimenting the shift of AQ

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Will McCants May 26, 2008

Zawahiri vs. His Mentor

Lawrence Wright has a new article on the acrimonious debate between Zawahiri and his former mentor, Sayyid Imam. This is the most serious ideological fissure in the Jihadi movement in twenty years (since the death of `Abd Allah `Azzam) and Wright does an excellent job of tying together all the pieces of a complicated story. Document (Arabic): Guiding the Jihad (ترشيد العمل الجهادي في مصر والعالم) Document (Arabic): Exoneration (التبريئة)

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Will McCants May 25, 2008

“I Am a Kenyan From the Savannah and This is My Story with the Islamic State of Iraq”

That’s the opening line from a letter by Kenyan named `Uthman Turawari.   `Uthman relates that he had high hopes for the jihad in Iraq.  But the more he read about it, the more he saw that the Jihadis were willing to compromise the principle of bara’ (shunning anyone who differs from them ideologically).  Rather than fighting together, they are willing to work with the Baathists and with the tyrannical rulers of neighboring countries. `Uthman was very depressed until he met a certain Abu `Abd Allah (also Bin Laden’s kunya).  Abu `Abd Allah asked `Uthman if he had ever heard of `Umar al-Baghdadi, the amir of the Islamic State of Iraq.  “No” replied `Uthman.  Abu `Abd Allah reassured `Uthman that Baghdadi is fighting for all Muslims, not just the Muslims of Iraq, and that the Islamic State of Iraq is the hope of the Muslim community.  `Uthman ends his letter by

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Will McCants May 25, 2008

Bin Laden Statement Prompts Speculation on AQ Strategy in Palestine (Part 3)

In the final installment of the series, we’ll look at a piece of analysis from Ekhlaas member Abu Hamza 2005 titled, “A Modest Reading of al-Qaeda’s Strategy in the Levant [bilad al-sham]”. Abu Hamza begins by referring to Bin Laden’s 2007 statement, “To Our People in Iraq.” The statement, according to Abu Hamza, indicates that the Islamic State of Iraq is the nucleus of a future caliphate, but the caliphate will not be realized until the countries surrounding Iraq are defeated and Israel is destroyed. For this reason, Al-Qaeda “the Mother” (i.e. al-Qaeda Central) is very keen on expanding into the Levant and the other countries surrounding Israel. It also wants to establish branches in important global capitals, which can put pressure on foreign countries and scatter the focus of the enemy. Abu Hamza says that he is certain that AQ cells are being created in the Palestinian territories, Syria,

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Will McCants May 24, 2008

Letter from a Jihadi in Iraq

On May 10, Ekhlaas member Muhibb al-Amir al-Baghdidi (Fan of Commander Baghdadi) posted a letter he received from a certain Abu Hurayra. Muhibb claims that Abu Hurayra is “one of the soldiers of the Islamic State of Iraq.” Here’s the letter: In the Name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate. My dear brother, precious to my heart. We ask God to reward you well on our behalf. My dear brother, I have approached the zero hour, as they say, for the decisive battle, as they call it. God willing, it will prove decisive for the Muslims through the aid of God and His assistance. My dear brother, I have resolved to participate in this battle, but I am participating as a journalist or photographer. But my inner being is a fighter in the path of God against the infidels and the apostates. My brother, I swear I have a strong

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Will McCants May 22, 2008
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