ji·had·ica

Iraq a Sinking Ship for al-Qaeda, Afghanistan the Lifeboat

Earlier this week, I noted that members of the Hesbah forum are increasingly pessimistic about Iraq. And in May I wrote about the death of Sulayman al-`Utaybi, an al-Qaeda leader in Iraq who had left for Afghanistan after his dismissal from his post. Here’s what I wrote at the time: That he headed straight for Afghanistan makes me wonder if this is a sign of things to come as AQ gets squeezed out of Iraq. Now the Washington Post gives us further evidence that Iraq is a sinking ship for al-Qaeda and Afghanistan is the lifeboat, at least for the senior leadership. Amit Paley has written a well-sourced article on the departure of Abu Ayyub al-Masri (aka Abu Hamza al-Muhajer), the head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, for Afghanistan. Here’s what we learn from the article (sources in parentheses): Foreign fighters AQ is diverting new recruits to Afghanistan and Iraq. (U.S.

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Will McCants July 31, 2008

Poll of Potentional Foreign Fighters

Periodically, Ekhlaas members poll the forum. Usually, the questions are inane (“How much do you love the Islamic State of Iraq?”). But a recent poll posted two months ago caught my eye. The voting seems to be coming to an end, so I’m posting the results. The question is, “After you arrive in the theaters of jihad (God willing), where will you find yourself?” The respondents can choose from the following (quoting): in a martyrdom operation in the field of battle fighting the Crusaders [direct fighting] producing sophisticated weapons [traditional and non-traditional] in leadership positions [company commander – group commander] teaching a course on the Sharia in the media division something else 75 people responded, but only 46 directly answered the question. Some had multiple answers, so I only counted their first choices. Here’s how the results break down: 15 Martyrdom, 22 Fight, 3 Weapons, 3 Leadership, 0 Teaching, 1

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Will McCants July 30, 2008

New Booklets on Media, Jihad

Abu al-Harith al-Ansari, a popular Jihadi author, has written an introductory booklet to Jihadism that explains the ideology and motivations of its adherents. Topics covered include: “Why we fight,” “Who we fight,” “How we fight,” and “Who we fight first.” Another interesting booklet that was posted recently is by Abu Ta Ha al-Miqdad, an Ekhlaas member. The booklet is a study of how the media distorts Islam and the Jihadi Movement. There’s an introductory essay on how to spot spin, followed by close readings of articles from the mainstream Arab press. (Follow the links in the .pdfs to get the documents.) Document (Arabic): 7-28-08-ekhlaas-new-book-by-abu-harith-al-ansari-on-principles-of-jihad Document (Arabic): 7-27-08-ekhlaas-how-to-uncover-media-spin

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Will McCants July 29, 2008

Two Major Steps Forward in Studying al-Qaeda

First, Thomas Hegghammer has written a very valuable article on the rise and fall of al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia (more properly, “al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula” or QAP).  Thomas’ study is valuable because he draws on a deep well of empirical research to challenge the three major explanatory models of Islamist militancy: ideological (as they believe, so shall they fight), structural (the system is pushing them to fight), or social movement (al-Qaeda is just the violent manifestation of a larger network of like-minded people).  Thomas argues instead that QAP’s material and human resources, organizational needs, and pan-Islamic orientation, coupled with the Saudi security environment in the early 2000s, were more determinative influences on the group’s behavior.  I’m interested to know what he makes of the latest round of militant activity and arrests in the kingdom. Second, Steve Corman of the COMOPS Monitor has created a blog aggregation service for counterterrorism

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Will McCants July 29, 2008

Abu Khabab Killed in Missile Strike

This morning Reuters reported that U.S. missiles had struck a madrasa in Wana, South Waziristan and killed six people. At that time, the reporters did not know who had been killed. On the forums this afternoon, there were several rumors that Abu Khabab, a senior al-Qaeda bomb maker and chemical weapons expert, had died in the strike. Now Taliban officials have confirmed it. Abu Khabab was supposedly killed in 2006, but he survived. If you’ve read Omar Nasiri’s Inside the Jihad, you’ll remember Abu Khabab’s ominous appearance at a training camp in Afghanistan (hat tip: AC). The fact that the U.S. has killed so many high-profile al-Qaeda members recently suggests greater penetration of the militant network in Pakistan or greater cooperation of some tribes in the region.

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Will McCants July 28, 2008

Ekhlaas Members Travel to Somalia, Iraq

Under_cover2, a member of Ekhlaas, announced two weeks ago that two of his fellow forum members have made the transition from forum fighters to foreign fighters.  One went to Somalia, the other to Iraq. Iraq makes sense, particularly for Jihadis living nearby.   But Somalia?  I don’t see it mentioned much as a destination anymore. Document (Arabic): 7-11-08-ekhlaas-news-of-forum-member-who-went-to-somalia-and-another-who-went-to-iraq

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Will McCants July 27, 2008

Jihadis Despair of Iraq

Yaman Mukhaddab, a popular contributor to al-Hesbah (the most exclusive Jihadi forum), wrote an essay on July 21 in which he expressed alarm at the low morale and pessimism of some of his fellow forum members on account of al-Qaeda setbacks in Iraq. One brother, he notes, said that the jihad in Iraq is ending like the jihad in Algeria (badly). Another brother criticized Mukhaddab for being optimistic about Iraq. A third said the situation is out of control and the outcome is already known. Mukhaddab responds that such pessimism is unwarranted.  As scripture says, victory will come after severe testing.  And things can turn around at any time.  If AQ is able to strike the U.S. or if the U.S. strikes Iran, the mujahids in Iraq will benefit greatly (he doesn’t explain why). Mukhaddab ends by reminding his readers that there was a similar level of despondency after the

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Will McCants July 26, 2008

Economist Article on al-Qaeda

If you only have time to read one article on the current state of al-Qaeda, read the new special report in the Economist.  Not only does the author, Anton La Guardia, have great taste (Jihadica and some CTC products I worked on are listed in the sources), but he has done a masterful job of tying together a lot of conflicting trends. (Note that the links for all of the articles in the report are on the right-hand side of the screen.)

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Will McCants July 22, 2008

More Tripoli Action

Two videos, allegedly of Alawi fighters in Tripoli, have been posted online. Minus the guns, these guys look like they’re ready to go clubbing (this kind , not this kind ). The first video is of Alawi youth firing their guns into the air on their home turf of the Jabal Muhsin neighborhood of Tripoli. alawi-youth-in-jabal-muhsin-firing-guns The second is of Alawis firing into the Sunni neighborhood of Bab al-Tabbana. alawi-youth-fire-on-bab-al-tabbana These clips should give readers a greater sense of what’s boiling in Tripoli. And you can see why Sunni militants in Bab al-Tabbana are worried about the better-armed Alawis.

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Will McCants July 22, 2008

Jihadi Action Hero Dies in Ayn Hilwa, Lebanon

Over the weekend, Shihada Jawhar was killed in the Ayn Hilwa refugee camp in Lebanon, along with two others, in fighting between Jund al-Sham, a Sunni militant group, and Fatah. Jawhar, who fought for al-Qaeda in Iraq, is best known for a revealing interview with al-`Arabiyya’s program “Death Industry” upon his return to Ayn Hilwa.   As you can see from his exchange with the host, Shihada typifies the Jihadi action hero I wrote about a few days ago.  He’s a little less cocky in later a New York Times interview, probably because he had just burned himself making a bomb. Reaction on the forums is mixed.  Some feel that Shihada was just a loudmouth who got what was coming to him, while others view him as a hero.

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Will McCants July 21, 2008
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